The consumer looks weakening, with the composite at 42 as of Jun 1, 2026 and down 7.7 points from a year ago. Hard data is 50 versus soft data at 1, so activity is holding up better than confidence.
Weighted read across all seven sub-scores.
Labor, spending, balance sheet, and credit stress.
Sentiment, expectations, and household outlook surveys.
The composite was little changed on the latest monthly read. Household Debt / Disposable Income Ratio is the largest drag, while Real PCE — 3-Month Annualized Growth Rate is the biggest offset. Big-Ticket Affordability had the largest sub-score move.
Mortgage rates, auto loan rates, credit card rates, and housing affordability.
Delinquencies, charge-offs, student-loan stress, serious delinquency transitions, and lending standards.
Savings, real income growth, debt-to-income, debt service, and net worth.
CPI proximity to 2% target, shelter costs, and gasoline prices.
Employment conditions, payroll growth, claims, and real wage gains.
Consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and financial distress surveys.
Real PCE momentum, retail sales, travel demand, and food services.