How the U.S. consumer is holding up.

29 series across 7 sub-scores, normalized to each indicator's own expanding historical distribution and aggregated into a composite read on household financial health.

Updated May 1, 2026

Composite Score

Mixed

Composite · 5-year history 0-100 scale

Big-Ticket Affordability

Mortgage rates, auto loan rates, credit card rates, and housing affordability.

Weight 10% 47 Weakening

Credit Stress

Delinquency rates, charge-offs, serious delinquency transitions, and lending standards.

Weight 20% 61 Mixed

Household Balance Sheet

Savings rate, real income growth, debt service burden, and net worth.

Weight 15% 62 Mixed

Inflation Affordability

CPI proximity to 2% target, shelter costs, and gasoline prices.

Weight 10% 54 Weakening

Labor & Income

Employment conditions, payroll growth, claims, and real wage gains.

Weight 20% 94 Very Strong

Sentiment & Expectations

Consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and financial distress surveys.

Weight 10% 9 Crisis

Spending & Demand

Real PCE momentum, retail sales, travel demand, and food services.

Weight 15% 36 Stressed

How the U.S. consumer is holding up.

Big-Ticket Affordability

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (PMMS)

Commercial Bank New Auto Loan Rate — 72-Month

Credit Card Interest Rate — All Accounts Assessed Interest

Housing Affordability Composite

Credit Stress

Credit Card Delinquency Rate — All Commercial Banks

Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate — All Commercial Banks

Credit Card Charge-Off Rate — All Commercial Banks

NY Fed HHDC — Credit Card Transition to Serious Delinquency (90+)

SLOOS — Net % Banks Tightening Consumer Credit Card Standards

Household Balance Sheet

Personal Saving Rate

Real Disposable Personal Income (YoY)

Household Debt Service Ratio

Household Net Worth / Disposable Income Ratio

Inflation Affordability

Headline CPI (YoY)

Core CPI — ex Food and Energy (YoY)

CPI Shelter (YoY)

EIA U.S. Regular Retail Gasoline Price (Weekly Avg)

Labor & Income

Unemployment Rate (U-3)

Nonfarm Payrolls — 3-Month Avg Change

Initial Jobless Claims — 4-Week Average

Continued Claims

Real Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)

Sentiment & Expectations

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

OECD Consumer Confidence Indicator (Conference Board Proxy)

NY Fed SCE — Probability of Missing a Minimum Debt Payment

Spending & Demand

Real PCE — 3-Month Annualized Growth Rate

Advance Real Retail & Food Services Sales (YoY)

TSA Daily Checkpoint Throughput vs. 2019 (7-Day Avg)

Real PCE — Food Services & Accommodations (YoY)